Climate modeling and observational data suggest the world is already on track to reach unsafe levels of warming by the end of the century, according to the two papers. His 2014 study used Bayesian statistics, a common tool used in modern statistics, to show that world population is unlikely to stabilize this century.
The first study employed statistical analysis and found there's a 95 percent chance that our planet will heat up more than 2 degrees by the end of the century.
Raftery said that his team found that population, surprisingly, was not a factor that affected global temperature.
World temperatures are likely to rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius this century, surpassing a "tipping point" that global climate deals aim to avert, scientists say. The researchers noted there's only a 1 percent chance the temperature will only increase less than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Raftery said that, "Even if the 2-degrees Celsius target isn't met, action is very important".
"It is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years", he explained.
The study's findings are quite alarming for the worldwide community as according to the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015, the 195 countries committed to keeping the temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius above industrial level and set a goal of keeping the warming to 1.5 degrees.
Raftery explained that achieving the goal of less than 1.5 C warming would "require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past". Findings state that the latter is barely credible with only a 1% chance that temperatures will go above less than 1.5-degrees Celsius. "The window of opportunity on a 1.5-degree [C] target is closing". Natural capture of carbon by the oceans and its storage in the deep could reduce the "committed warming" by about 0.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Climate change is not a worst case scenario but in the future carbon will have to be removed from the atmosphere. The researchers also found that if fossil emissions continue for 15 more years, the planet's global temperature could rise as much as 3 degrees Celsius.
"Our estimates are based on things that have already happened, things we can observe, and they point to the part of future warming that is already committed to by past emissions", said lead author Thorsten Mauritsen, from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. "Future carbon dioxide emissions will then add extra warming on top of that commitment". However, despite each new climate change study seeming more dire than the last, scientists are refusing to give up hope. But this increase of 2 degrees could lead to even more deaths. Researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill estimated that, if left unaddressed, the debilitating impact of climate change on the global air pollution could account for 60,000 deaths in 2030.