While carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel and industry in China are expected to rise about 3.5 per cent, after about two years of economic slowdown, India's contribution to the atmospheric build-up would go up by almost 2 per cent, the researchers have found.
The main reason for the rise is an expected 3.5 per cent increase in emissions in China, the world's biggest polluter, where low rains have reduced low-carbon hydroelectric output and industrial activity has increased.
Emissions from all human activities will reach 41 billion tonnes in 2017, researchers at the University of East Anglia said, adding that the figure would be "an unwelcome message" for delegates at a United Nations climate conference under way in Bonn, Germany.
Richard Black, director of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit think-tank who was not involved in the study, said carbon emissions per unit of GDP were falling.
Total carbon dioxide emissions from all human activities, which includes fossil fuels, industry, and land-use change, will reach around 41 billion tons in 2017, while emissions from fossil fuels alone will reach around 37 billion tons.
The world's rate of carbon emissions is rising again after staying steady for three years, according to a comprehensive study released today.
The team flags that persistent uncertainties exist in our ability to estimate recent changes in emissions, particularly when there are unexpected changes as in the last few years.
Data from the Department of Environment and Energy shows Australia's emissions have been increasing since 2013. "This is very disappointing", said lead researcher Corinne Le Quere, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in Britain.
Australia has committed to reducing emissions to 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030.
Dr Canadell is also concerned that Australia is running out of time to reverse the emissions trajectory.
Although Professor Jotzo said there is a chance that Australia's 2017 emissions may show a slight decline due to the closing of the Hazelwood power station, this will likely be offset by a higher sales of petrol during the same period.
The GCP expects India's emissions to rise by 2%, much lower than the 6% per year averaged over the previous decade, because of significant government interventions in the economy.
"With global Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities estimated at 41 billion tonnes for 2017, time is running out on our ability to keep warming well below 2ºC let alone 1.5ºC". The US emissions are projected to decline by 0.4% this year when its GDP will grow by about 2.2%.
The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen about two percent in 2017 according to climate scientists, dashing hopes that the world had already seen the highest emission levels from the coal, oil, and gas industries.
The news arrives as hundreds of countries enter the second week of the climate change conference in Bonn, Germany, where leaders will discuss how to implement the standards set during the 2015 Paris climate agreement. It will help scientific community to develop methods and perform measurements that can verify changes in national emissions within the five-yearly cycle.