Among the sectors that are likely to register higher growth this fiscal are construction at 3.6% against 1.7% past year and trade, hotels, transport and communication and services related to broadcasting at 8.7% versus 7.8%.
"Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2017- 18 is likely to attain a level of '129.85 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2016-17 of ' 121.90 lakh crore, released on 31st May 2017".
The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release the first advance estimates of GDP growth for 2017-18 on Friday, a practice it started a year ago after the government shifted the presentation of the Union Budget to 1 February from end February. The RBI estimates the economy to grow at 6.7 per cent in terms of gross value added (GVA), which is GDP minus taxes. Per capita income to fall too India's per capita income, a gauge for measuring living standard, is likely to witness a slower growth of 8.3 per cent at Rs 1,11,782 in FY 2017-18. "Implicit calculation suggests growth in the second half of 2017-18 will be better thatn the first. This would imply a reduction in nominal GDP as compared to the budgeted magnitude, which could mean that keeping the 3.2% (of the GDP) fiscal deficit target could actually amount to a lower nominal magnitude of borrowing", said D K Srivastava chief policy advisor, EY India. Many economists have blamed the chaotic implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in July for the reduced GDP.
Releasing the GDP first advance estimate, Anant said their projections for the entire fiscal showed that the nominal GDP calculated at market prices is expected to grow at 9.5 percent, which is lower than 11.75 percent estimated in the Union Budget presented last February.
The growth rate of the agriculture, fishing and forestry sector is expected to decline from 4.9% in 2016-'17 to 2.1% in 2017-'18.
"Even the current GDP forecast of 6.5 per cent is likely to be hard to attain, given that growth in the first half was just 6 per cent", Rao added. Economists said the advance estimates may have been conservative in its assessment. In the first seven months of the financial year, Index of Industrial Production (IIP) growth averaged 2.5%, a tad lower than the average of 2.6% in the first six months (April-September). "While this gives the impression of a downturn, in reality, growth has bottomed out in the first quarter of the current year and is now on a recovery", the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) said in a release.
Despite the poor estimates, the analysts are optimistic about economic growth in 2018-19.