Goldman has used machine learning to simulate how it thinks the World Cup will play out, but has frequently adjusted its forecasts because of the unpredictable nature of the tournament.
Going to extra-time and penalties meant using up valuable reserves of energy that could potentially put them at a disadvantage in their semi-final on Wednesday when they face an England side who coasted to a 2-0 win over Sweden.
It is the first time England have reached that stage in this tournament since 1990, beyond memory for many younger fans. Just before midnight local time, Ivan Rakitic's winning penalty ignited yet another celebration that was a mix of excitement and relief. Can Croatia stop the English juggernaut in the semis? At some point, that wave could crash.
After Croatia won the penalty shootout she went to the team's changing rooms to give them hugs and congratulate the coach and players. You have to pay the toll for such exertions. "We told him we were disappointed".
Ignashevich was one of the successful penalty takers in the 4-3 shootout defeat to Croatia and was also on target from the spot when they beat Spain on penalties.
Russian Federation came back into the game five minutes before the end of the extra time as Mario Fernandes scored to force the match into penalties. I'm sure both sides will feel that pressure to some degree. We made ourselves happy, but we also made everyone back home in Croatia happy.
"I don't have any emotions left at all", said Russian Federation midfielder Roman Zobnin. "I don't cry often, but I have a good reason".
The team landed in Moscow just after 3:30 pm CET on Sunday after a memorable night in Sochi beating the hosts Russian Federation.
Neither team could be separated after extra time, which ended 2-2 following an absorbing and exhausting battle at Fisht Stadium.
It was why Croatia goalkeeper Danijel Subasic was cautioned after he displayed a t-shirt honouring the memory of his friend and former teammate Hrvoje Custic.
An injury to Sime Vrsaljko forced Dalic to send on Vedran Corluka as his fourth substitution, though Croatia were celebrating when Vida nodded past Akinfeev.
"Yesterday, there were tears", said defender Sergei Ignashevich.