A strong majority, 74 per cent, of USA business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of United States President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021.
"I'm prepared for everything".
"No, I don't see a recession, " he said. "Consumers are rich. I gave a tremendous tax cut". "I did a tax cut".
"The fundamentals of the economy are very strong", White House counselor Kellyanne Conway told reporters, adding that "it's nice to see the media finally cover the Trump economy".
Larry Kudlow, President Trump's Top economic adviser, also played down fears of a recession and predicted the economy will perform well in 2-H of Y 2019.
A survey of 226 economists found they were almost as pessimistic this summer as earlier this year, illustrating that many of them believe the question is not so much whether the United States will enter into a recession but when.
"Consumers are working, at higher wages", Kudlow said on NBC News' Meet the Press. "They are spending and they are saving". "They're actually saving also while they're spending - that's an ideal situation". "We're doing pretty darn well in my judgment".
A survey by the National Association for Business Economics found almost 4 in 10 economists expect a recession next year, though an even larger share (48%) don't expect a downturn until 2021 or later. Last month, the central bank cut rates by a quarter-point.
However, the Fed was already sending strong signals that it meant to pull back on the rate increases made in 2018 due to concerns starting to dog the economic outlook, including the trade war with China.
Peter Navarro, who advises President Trump on trade policy, shares that sentiment. That's up from 25 per cent in the February survey.
However, "the panel is split regarding whether the downturn will hit in 2020 or 2021", Hunter said in a summary of the survey, which showed 38 percent expect a contraction of growth next year, while 34 percent don't see it until the following year.
Another 2 per cent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year. "Let's not be afraid of optimism", he said, adding that low interest rates could boost demand for houses and cars.
Trump said the USA has options on how to handle a recession, but that it would happen only if he had no choice but to take on China. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until December 15 tariffs on about 60 per cent of an additional $300b of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to almost everything the United States buys from China. The new measures will take effect in two stages - on Sept 1 and Dec 15.
Helping to ease worries over a USA recession are stronger-than-expected US economic data, a slight improvement in U.S. Kudlow said Trump has taught him and others that the "China story has to be changed and reformed".