The ADB noted that "a trade deal provisionally agreed" to by China and the United States on October 11 is "limited in scope and has not been finalized", and that "there is no rollback of prior tariffs, and anticipated December tariffs may still be implemented". The ADB released the latest estimates on Wednesday, stating that consumption has been affected due to slowing employment growth and delayed harvesting.
Based on the report, Taiwan is the only beneficiary from the trade war as it is forecast the other three of the Four Asian Tigers will suffer economically. "Domestic investment is also weakening in many countries, as business sentiment has declined", said ADB Chief Economist Mr. Yasuyuki Sawada. He added the threat of African swine fever (ASF) is also a key factor in the decline of global economic performances, reported UDN.
The ADB noted that inflation is ticking upward across the region on the back of higher food prices.
In September, the ADB forecast India's GDP to grow 6.5 per cent in 2019-20 and 7.2 per cent in the year thereafter.
India's growth will likely slow to 5.1% this year, down from a previous forecast of 6.5%, the bank said, pointing to risk aversion in the country's financial sector, a credit crunch and slow job growth.
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed India's GDP growth projection to 6.1 per cent from 7 per cent, the World Bank lowered its estimate to 6 per cent.
The ADB said GDP growth will average 6 percent in 2019 and 6.2 percent in 2020, while inflation is expected to average 2.6 percent in 2019 and 3 percent in 2020.
Hong Kong (China) already in technical recession, will see severe downward pressures persist possibly into 2020. The economy is now expected to contract 1.2 percent this year and grow 0.3 percent next year. "This put growth in the first half of FY2019 at 4.8% as expansion in private consumption slowed to 4.1% and in investment to 2.5%".
The bank said that Central Asia was the only subregion where the economic situation looked a bit better now than in September.
"Some tentative signs have emerged that the Indian economy is stabilizing in the second half of 2019", the report said.