It looks like the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season could be a busy one.
During the recent teleconference, Jacobs said that NOAA's Atlantic outlook, "calls for a 70 percent probability for each of the following ranges: 13-19 main storms with top winds of at least 39 mph, of those 6-10 will become hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 mph and that includes 3-6 major hurricanes, category 3 and higher, with top winds of at least 111 mph". During the season, there were 18 total storms and six hurricanes, including hurricane Dorian, which severely impacted the Bahamas.
In 2018, tropical storm Alberto made a late May landfall along the Florida Panhandle, and made it all the way to lower MI in the north before dispersing.
New this year, NOAA's Aviation Weather Center is expanding its Graphical Forecasts for Aviation (GFA) Tool in late June over Hawaii and portions of the Pacific Ocean. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are expected to either remain neutral or to trend toward La Nina, meaning there will not be an El Nino present to suppress hurricane activity.
The Bermuda Weather Service said Tropical Storm Arthur would pass to the distant northwest of Bermuda today before it curved sharply and headed back towards the island.
Several climate factors are said to be contributing to above-normal activity this year including no El Nino and warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, as well as reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, and an enhanced west African monsoon.
This list of storm names was last used six years ago. One storm has already been crossed off Tropical Storm Arthur
Though the season has not officially begun, the first named storm - Tropical Storm Arthur - brought wind and rain to North Carolina earlier this week before taking a northeastern turn away from land and into the Atlantic Ocean.
The National Hurricane Center said the storm could drop between two and seven centimeters of rain on North Carolina.
The hurricane outlook doesn't forecast how many storms will come ashore.
The Climate Prediction Center will update its forecast in August just before the historical peak of the season on September 10.
This outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Central Pacific basin, and does not predict whether, or how many, of these systems will affect Hawaii. This is the sixth-straight year that there has been a named storm before the start of the hurricane season.