The US forecast totals 295,011 deaths by December. But there are ways to prevent some of the infections and deaths, IHME said. The model assumes that 50% of school districts in the US will only offer online instruction for the 2020-2021 school year, according to IHME. Murray said that the IHME "is closely monitoring the effectiveness of two potential therapeutics - remdesivir and dexamethasone - and may adjust future models as more is learned about those drugs".
IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray says the public's behavior has a direct correlation to the spread and transmission of the virus, which eventually affects the death toll as well.
With rising COVID-19 cases, there could be an increased occurrence of MIS-C, but this might not be apparent immediately because of the delay in development of symptoms, said the report's authors, including those from the CDC's COVID-19 response team. "And the potentially deadly cycle starts over again". The group uses state data along with other metrics to create projections on the number of coronavirus-related deaths throughout the USA, the report said.
More than 160,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the United States, according to a Reuters tally on Friday, as talks over an economic relief bill broke down between Democrats in Congress and the White House.
On Thursday, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear announced that he would be extending the state's mandate by an additional 30 days.
But if most everyone in the United States would wear masks outside their home, starting immediately, that number could be reduced by almost 66,000, according to the IHME model. But mandates with penalties increase mask wearing by 15 percentage points.
'We're seeing a rollercoaster in the United States.
Mask-wearing increases have been larger in states with larger epidemics, he said.
According to the IHME model, if states significantly ease existing mandates, the amount of deaths could near 400,000 by the end of the year - while if 95 percent of Americans wear face masks daily, around 66,000 lives could be saved.
October - Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, and Washington.
The mandates could be pushed back by six to eight weeks on average if 95% of people wear masks, the model projects.
The model also assumes that that 50% of school districts in each state will opt for online instruction only for the 2020-2021 school year.
"People do respond to the circumstances in their community", Murray said.
Meanwhile, US officials, teachers' unions, parents and students battle over how to reopen schools safely.
The new death projections and other information, such as hospital resources usage, are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org.
The model, which The Washington Post has called "America's most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.