The journey Donald Trump must take is perilous, at best.
The announcement by FBI Director James Comey that his agency is investigating more emails as part of a probe into Clinton's use of a private email server has upended the presidential race and given new hope to Trump that he can make an improbable comeback and win on November 8. Those emails were not from her server.
Clinton will stump in the Valley on Wednesday.
Since he has likely alienated minority and educated women with his rhetoric and behavior, Trump must pull in vast numbers of new white voters -- some who may have voted for Democrats in the past - to make up for the shortfall.
The controversy over Clinton's email practices while she served as secretary of state has dogged her for more than a year.
Americans see Trump as more likely to bring about change to the political system: 52 percent said he is the candidate most likely to bring change, compared with 31 percent for Clinton. But Trump performs about equally poorly on assessments of his honesty, and only slightly fewer consider him corrupt.
An alarming number of people actually believe the latter. Forty-two percent of likely voters said they would cast their ballots for Clinton, versus 41.2 percent who are likely to vote for Trump. Among likely voters - those who said either that they are certain to vote or that they have voted in "every" recent election - the margin of error is +/- 3.16 percentage points (n=959).
Forty-two percent of Republican voters and 35 percent of Trump's own supporters think the accusations are probably true. By contrast, about a fifth of Democrats say Clinton's email use while she was secretary of state makes them less likely to vote for her, but majority say they're ultimately supporting her anyway.
In a 2005 video that emerged this month, Trump could be heard bragging in vulgar terms about groping and kissing women.
Clinton has the support of almost two-thirds of the state's Hispanic voters, who have swelled voter ranks since the 2012 election.
Trump also has tried to equate the accusations against him with charges of infidelity and sexual assault leveled for years against his rival's husband, but the poll shows voters aren't buying the comparison.
Trump's detour from the campaign trail to plug his business drew criticism from some fellow Republicans, but the former reality TV star said the project, completed "under budget and ahead of schedule", showed what he could accomplish if elected president.
The drumbeat of WikiLeaks disclosures yielded material to lambast Hillary Clinton and her family's foundation. Clinton's lead a week ago was 4 points.
Still, 44 percent say they're less likely to vote for her because of hacked information about what she said during private speeches for which she has long refused to release transcripts.
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,546 adults, including 1,212 likely voters, was conducted online October 20-24, using a sample drawn from GfK's probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is created to be representative of the US population.
The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from October 14 to October 23 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points.
The original sample was drawn from respondents recruited by phone or mail survey methods. People selected for KnowledgePanel who didn't have access to the internet were provided access for free.