Those scattered showers will move east of the Heartland overnight and set us up for a dry day on Wednesday. This will act as the fuel source for this storm system. The first wave will arrive tomorrow morning (5 a.m. - noon). Wave #1 will move in from the southwest in the pre-dawn hours. Widespread rainfall with thunderstorms can be expected, especially Thursday afternoon.
Main threats with any storms on Thursday will be damaging winds and heavy rain, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.
"Contrary [to the GFS], the ECMWF has trended very aggressively toward a major severe weather event and tornado outbreak across [Mississippi] and northern/western parts of Alabama as multiple long-track supercells are shown evolving within an open warm sector", wrote the Weather Service in Birmingham. This break is going to be important...how much will the atmosphere recover?
Stage 2 - SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. There is a chance for a few strong to severe storms with gusty winds and/or an isolated tornado.
The Storm Prediction Center puts out these risks.
The South is bracing for a severe weather outbreak, including some of the same areas that got hit with tornadoes last week. Temperatures back off to the lower 60s which is closer to climatological normal. There's a likelihood that, if trends continue, that risk category may need to be upgraded further. By Saturday we warm into the middle 70s briefly underneath a mostly sunny sky - nice spring weather for the weekend! Half of it at least. Some significant severe weather is possible Thursday afternoon, including long-lived, strong tornadoes.